It's here to stay and disrupt for a long time

Marc Andreessen is the second most admired person on my list after Paul Graham, and what was able to do in this tough economy and what he said about startups and the Web are the perfect examples of why.

And in addition, that's why I hate my job. I can't believe how backward a lot of these Korean companies can be. No, I should take it back. They are not backwards, but they are just so predictable and so ordinary that not much innovations come from there. I have no others to blame but myself for current situation. I should have known it and seen it coming even under the sweet talks by my old boss. Their way of management is through micro-management and hierarchical structure. Ewwwww. What was I thinking?

But, at the same time, it gives me more and more motivation to pursue my own interest. I see it as my only way to do what I enjoy since my resume is not good fit for one of those hot startups. I will channel my frustration into something good. I am actually having fun with what I am building. I have even registered domain name for it. I have no idea whether it will become of something. But, all that matters is that I am enjoying it.

Infinite possibilities and power of parents

Paul Graham, a successful serial entrepreneur and my biggest idol, just published another thought-provoking essay - After Credentials.

Interestingly, he was referring to a New York Times article on Korean education system. Having grown up in Korea till 16, I had experienced it myself and am in complete agreement with him. I was an odd kid in Korea. I didn't like following those customary rules just because they had been practiced for many hundreds of years. I hated cramming and being judged by test scores. And it's so true that a college degree plays a large role in one's career and life in Korea. Since graduating from college is pretty much guaranteed, once you get in, you are set. Therefore, there is a lot of emphasis in GETTING in to a college, no matter what you major in. So, it's safe to say that most kids do not major in what they wanted.

Korea is a country RULED by large companies: Samsung, Hyundai, etc. They employ 100's of thousands of people and venture into all kinds of business, from cars to hospital, theme park, and consumer electronics. Working there means job security, so many college graduates want to work there. Thus, just like what Paul said, credential and pedigree matter A LOT. Also personal connections. It's sickening. 

It's one of the reasons why I like the US and the Silicon Valley. Like I mentioned about Obama, it's the land of infinite possibilities. I've worked at many start-ups, and I know that all of them were filled with people from all different backgrounds, and that included educational background. Once you leave your first job, you are judged on your skills, not where you went to school. It's so true for engineers and also sales folks. Even in the Silicon Valley, the larger a company is - like Intel and Cisco - the more your credential and pedigree matter. 

Raising two kids, I think about what values I bestow upon them. As an Asian, and perhaps the way I was raised, I highly value education and have been sending them to a private school. But as I also grow older, I wonder if it's so necessary. Of course education is important, but I am not sure if sending them to a private school is necessary. Because, there is so much more important than just learning - creativity, positive attitude, ingenuity, etc. I really want my kids to understand that there are a lot more things valuable than good grades. I want to encourage my kids to be entrepreneurial, try new things, and not be afraid of failures. Do your best and don't worry. I hope my parents could have taught me something different. I don't blame my parents at all, but I can't help but to imagine how things would have been different if I were taught different values. 

Historical moment, and only in America

Today is the inaguration of the 44th president, Barack Hussein Obama. 

I left home a little after 9AM, and the Vice President, Joe Biden were just taking an oath. A few minutes later, Barack did and started his speech. He was still making a speech when I arrived at work, and I stayed in the car listening to the speech until the end. 

On the way to work, I was thinking to myself that how extraordinary today was. I used to say that while both Coasts are quite progressive and tolerant, because of more conservative center, I would never see either a woman or non-white president in my lifetime. But, I was proven wrong, and I am very glad I was. Though, I am sure dismal failure of Bush's presidency helped a lot. He has a lot of work ahead, and I feel sorry for him since he is taking office in the worst possible time.

Also, it made me glad to live in America. This would have been only possible in America. Barack is half black, and his middle name is Hussein for Pete's sake. We are sometimes critical of America, but despite of all the negative things we see and say about America, there is no better country thatn America.

Only in America, we have people from everywhere, every possible country, and live together with relatively small number of problems. Only in America, a minority with Muslim middle name could be elected to be the president. When other countries wrote us off, we showed them we still have what it takes and what makes America great. Only in America, truly anything is possible. America is the land of risk takers and pioneers. It makes sense that the center of creative and innovation is in Silicon Valley, in America. Current economic downturn shall pass, and when it does, America will come out stronger than before.

How do you know when you are in deep sh*t

I need to read through my emails better. Especially when it's written in Korean, I tend to just glaze over and that gets me into trouble. Anyhow, there was an email from Bayarea K Group about some economic forum being held in SF, sponsored by a so-called "Wall Street Journal of Korea." I didn't realize what it was about, but I later found out that it was a part of annual meeting by KAEA (Korean American Economic Associations).

The forum was a panel discussion and there were three panelists, one Korean British and two Americans (one of them Berkeley professor). They all talked about what went wrong and what "definitely" caused today's economic downturn. Though, it was quite educational, none of the three could predict when and how the economy would get better. They couldn't even agree on what monetary or federal policies should be implemented to jump start the economy. When economists do not know, then you know we are in deep sh*t. There were a few things they agreed such as stimulus plan, what kind and how. But, I wanted to ask about rising national debt and falling value of dollars in the Q&A time. When it was over, though, I became completely disinterested in what they had to say. Because it doesn't matter how intelligent they sound if none of their suggestions didn't get executed and most likely they weren't.

Funny thing was a survey questions by KAEA (or could be that newspaper). It was asking very specific questions about exchange rate, gas price, when the economy would turn around, etc. Geez. When even economists do not know, how can we? But, I also found out that that only applied to us.

The rest and majority of participants were all "distinguished" economists from Korea. I didn't know that, and I certainly wouldn't have guessed it from their conversations. They all just talked about each other's hair style, alma mater, etc. Really? Is that why you flew all the way from Korea? I did ask a few folks what they thought about the whole economy, but they had the typical "you are not worthy of my conversation" attitude. Wow. Most of these guys were from higher education institutions and public research groups, and none came with their own personal money. At the end, they all talked about where to go and drink. No wonder Korea's economy is so f-ed up (well, besides the whole global recession thing).

Never Give Up

That phrase, Never Give Up, is so simple and commonly used that it is beginning to lose its meaning after several times hearing it. A few weeks ago, I saw a glimpse of Randy Pausch’s last lecture on PBS. The title of slide was “Never Give Up”. I have heard about his last lecture at CMU before, but never actually watched it. For strange reason, it piqued my interest this time and I decided to search it on YouTube and watch it fully. It was a bit long, but didn't feel like it. I strongly recommend it.

What a great speech! On the face of death, he stared at it squarely and decided not to let it control his life. He was making the best out of the hand he was dealt with, and having fun at the same time. He actually lived longer than doctors predicted. I think it was because of his positive attitude even in the face of death. There are many memorable moments in the lecture, but I just wanted to mention a few things.

Brick Wall

He said he’d faced many brick walls in his life. Interestingly he said that a brick wall is not there to stop us, but to test us how badly we want it. It’s a natural elimination process. Those who don’t want it badly will give up easily and go away. Those who want it badly will find a way to get over the obstacle. That is so true. It goes with what he said about never giving up. He mentioned a few times when he faced a brick wall, but did not give up. Eventually things worked out, and it taught him tremendous lessons.

Luck

He also said that luck is where preparation meets opportunity. An opportunity can come from anywhere at any time, and those who prepared will reap the benefits. He attributed a lot of his success to luck, but he also worked very hard, often till wee hours of the day. It is the very same thing many founders of successful startups mentioned in Founders at Work. They all worked hard, but there were many external forces they couldn’t control and thus things could have gone any direction. The reason why they were successful and many others who were equally smart and worked hard didn’t was because of some lucky chances and opportunities.

My personal story

I definitely feel lucky to have found a job in this economy. I thought I was one of a few unlucky ones to be unemployed at the worst possible time, but it looks like there are many that have been affected. While I did my best everyday searching for a job, my new employment definitely has a lot to do with luck, having a good friend and being at the right place at the right time. However, until I signed an employment agreement, it was complete emotional roller coaster ride.

The previous company I was working for closed its doors in August 2008. I took a few weeks off, playing with kids and decompressing from the hectic start-up life, and started to look again since early September. Things went down south really fast in October when stock market started to tank in the wake of bank failures. Recruiting activities suddenly came to a halt, and response rate dropped significantly. All existing conversations stopped because many companies froze hiring. I had a director position I was interviewing for, and while the VP of marketing at the company kept dragging me along and telling me I was the “leading” candidate, they finally dropped the position in November. The first interview was in early September, and quickly I went through the second and third round of interviews successfully. In the beginning, the VP promised he’d make a decision by the end of September. When September passed, he said he had a problem scheduling interviews for a few folks. Mid-October, we even negotiated salary level, and he said he should have been able to make an offer soon. Then he wanted to check with the board of directors since economic condition had deteriorated. He came back saying the board was negative about hiring more, but when I asked about possibility of contractor position instead, the VP said it would be possible since he had marketing budgets to use. Then finally, VP never got back to me, and that was the end of it. Throughout the whole process, I was quite anxious to land something and I tried really hard to control my urgency to call or email every five minutes. It was tough, and when it didn’t finally come through after all that time, it was quite devastating. While I was going back and forth with this company, I had gone through final interviews at a couple of different places, but they didn’t work out either. I also had a few opportunities to lead very early stage start-up companies (a few people, in need of funding) where I’d have to work without salary for sometime while raising funds in this tough time. But, just as in my last start-up I founded, supporting family took precedence, and I had to turn them down. After watching Randy's video though, I wonder if I had given up on the first start-up too early. I hit a brick wall (actually several of them), but I gave up at the end. 

Anyhow, everyday was quite hard. Whenever a recruiter called, a bit of hope sprung up, but it quickly died away when I didn’t hear back from them further. I sometimes got several calls from different recruiters for the same job. Since companies stopped hiring or slowed down dramatically, recruiters were hurting, too. I frequented local libraries, looking at different job boards and applying to various positions. I tried to utilize this time to get back to programming, but I couldn't focus with this dark cloud hanging over me. I reached out to everyone I could think of. Many tried to encourage me by saying kind words such as: “Hang in there, it will work out”, “You will find something soon”, “Unemployment does not represent who I am”, “It’s good time to spend time with family and kids”, etc. But, deep down, it still hurt and I could not help but feel I was losing my mojo. It was just bad timing, but blaming everything on external force would only make me complacent. I couldn't allow that. I had to be on my feet, always proactive.

However, more than anything, it was a learning opportunity. It was an opportunity to appreciate many things I took for granted, learn how to live frugally, and be thankful everyday.  You realize how many things you don't really need. We had to cut down our expenses drastically and live in a very lean way,  but it was definitely manageable. I also found out who my real friend was and who was not.

I can’t sugar coat current condition and say things will get better soon. I don’t believe, as many experts agree, things will get better soon. Definitely not for a while. I can’t offer advice on what would work and what would not, since I was a complete nerve wreck myself and couldn't keep positive attitude during the whole time. But, if I could offer a bit of advice to those in the job market, it would be the followings.

1. Never Give Up, because things will always work out at the end if you keep trying.


2. Keep positive attitude, which goes a long way when talking to a recruiter or during interviews. If Randy Pausch was able to keep positive attitude and had fun in the face of death, I think we all can.


3. Look in not so well-known job boards in addition to Dice, Monster or LinkedIn: Craigslist, KITList, KITList-Tech, and Jim's Jobs.
   


4. Cut down all unnecessary expenses


5. Utilize local library, where you can get free Wi-Fi, free electricity, free DVD rental, and quiet environment


6. Find bargains at Garage Sales


7. Find free or low-cost entertainment: Free museum admissions sponsored by Bank of America or Target

Never Give Up! I can’t say it enough. 

Mobile Security

From business to everyday users

In US, BlackBerry is often referred as CrackBerry, because of its addictive nature. The best way to gauge its popularity is by witnessing most business users checking their emails or sending messages on BlackBerry phones in airports or even in business meetings. Smartphone has been the weapon of choice for business users, who use it everyday including weekends to find contact information, check schedule, and read and send emails. Those functions were essential to conduct business on-the-go and enough to pay premium for the phone and the service. In addition, since most businesses use Microsoft Exchange for contact management, calendar and email, most smartphone vendors support integration with Microsoft Exchange. While Nokia has the highest market share (~39%) in worldwide smartphone market, US market is dominated by RIM (Research-In-Motion, manufacturer of BlackBerry phones) with about 40% market share followed by not so surprisingly Apple with about 30% market share. Market shares of Microsoft and Palm smartphones have been falling since early 2006, and the same trend continues.

Thanks to Apple’s iPhone, now the flood gate has opened. Prior to iPhone, a slick, trendy version of BlackBerry called Pearl and low-price PDA-type phones called Palm Centro had gained some popularity among non-business users. Introduction of slew of Google mobile applications – Gmail, Google Maps, Calendar, Google Search, and YouTube to name a few – also helped more and more everyday users to appreciate smartphones. Another catalyst was carrier’s introduction of unlimited data plan. But the real tsunami began with Apple iPhone. According to comScore’s report in October 2008, adoption of iPhone by low-income demographics increased 48% from June to August 2008. Interestingly enough, iPhone was a smartphone targeted for consumers, but with Microsoft Exchange integration support, more and more business users are adopting iPhone as welll. The following numbers regarding iPhone are quite staggering, considering that iPhone was introduced to the market only about one year ago.

• Best selling phone (6.89 million phones) in the US during Q3 2008 - not just in smartphone category. (Source: The NPD Group)
• Ranked number two in worldwide smartphone market with 17.3% market share and 523% Year-over-Year growth according to a report by Canalys.
• 300 million apps downloaded through App Store. (Source: Apple)
• Average of 2.2 million apps downloaded per day. (Source: Apple)
• More than 10,000 apps have been uploaded to App Store. (Source: Apple)

Table 1 - Worldwide smartphone market share

Another new entrant to the smartphone market with much anticipation was Google’s Android-based G1 smartphone. These two phones, iPhones and Android-based phones will be the center of smartphone revolution now and in the near future.

Openness wins, again

The major reason for explosive growth of iPhone could be attributed to the App Store. Yes, it looks good and multi-touch screen is revolutionizing the whole intuitive user interface movement, but the real drive is its openness. Before iPhone, most phones manufacturers guarded their phones like a walled garden. It has happened over and over before, where too many restrictions hindered true innovations. Users received whatever phone manufacturers or carriers decided to allow. But, iPhone provided a platform for developers to offer their software - for a profit if they wish - and more importantly gave users choices. Users decide what they want to download and/or buy. Developers have motivation to write good programs, better than other developer, so that their software could be purchased more and thus make more money. It’s truly a beautiful system and ingenious business model. The numbers I described above are clear evidence. If the rumor that Apple may introduce $99 version of iPhones before Christmas is true, it would be truly game-changing plan.

The whole premise behind Google’s Android-base G1 phone was also the openness. It’s even more open than iPhone since its operating system (Android) is open source and it does not have as stringent software review process as Apple. Starting December 5, Google is offering a development version of the G1 phone that is both SIM and hardware unlocked. It only costs $25 registration fee to register as a developer on Android Market, and pay $399 for the hardware. Google also plans to expand the territories that it’s available in, but initially it can be purchased in the US, UK, Germany, Japan, India, Canada, France, Taiwan, Spain, Australia, Singapore, Switzerland, Netherlands, Austria, Sweden, Finland, Poland, and Hungary. It’s a shame that most mobile-phone advanced country like Korea is not on the list. Korean mobile phone manufacturer had better wake up to the new mobile world, otherwise they may end up losing a lot of their market shares.

These two phones are shifting entire paradigm in not just smartphone market, but overall mobile phone market. As “Internet” generation grows up and adopt mobile behavior similar to that of desktop and Internet, demand for “open” mobile phones will grow stronger and stronger. It would not be too surprising that most of mobile phones in the future will follow Apple and Google’s model.

Open with care

Today’s smartphones do not deserve to be called phones. They are small computers and mobile phone capability. iPhone’s specification is better than even Playstation Portable (PSP).

Table 2 - Specifications of iPhone and PSP

And this is only the beginning. Be it mobile WiMAX or LTE, carriers will keep upgrading their networks to meet the demand and support faster bandwidth. Apple, other manufacturers of Android-based phone and incumbents will continue to push the envelope, developing better, faster, lighter and more powerful mobile devices. Does this sound familiar? Continuous improvement is no stranger to high tech world, but specifically it parallels laptops. When laptops first came out, they were much inferior to the desktops, as desktop PCs were to mini-computers much earlier. Nowadays, most laptops have become as powerful as desktops. And the day smartphones will be as powerful as laptops is just around the corner. They are not going to replace them, as we still have mainframes, mini-computers, desktops and laptops. They will all co-exist and serve specific roles.

The Internet opened the door to the world, where one can reach anywhere for instant access to any information he or she desires. Also, we have seen some who try to take advantage of the openness. In the dawn of desktops, malware then was limited to virus, and it had very limited way to distribute itself. With open network, where you can reach anyone, anyone can reach back to you. It doesn’t help to have vulnerable operating system and communication tools in the most desktops. Also, as opposed to hobby-like nature of virus writing in the beginning, financial gain is the main purpose of today’s perpetrators, and motivation to write good (?) and tenacious malware is much higher. Open network/system and free market are encouraging creative innovations not only in productivity but also in cybercrimes.

Mobile world is the next frontier (for cybercriminals)

There is a new report just published by Information Security Center of Georgia Tech, which predicts that mobile phones will be next target for botnets. It’s inevitable, as mobile phones are getting more powerful, faster Internet connection is possible and thus user behavior on mobile phone is shifting from voice communications to online communications. Previously, carriers charged users by number of SMS messages or amount of data used, but nowadays most carriers offer unlimited SMS and data plan at very attractive pricing points. The new rate plan in addition to the fact that mobile phones tend to be always on and often security is poor will make them even more attractive target for cybercriminals. The shifting user behavior makes similar “drive-by download” in mobile phones as in desktop possible. Also, another large difference between desktops and mobile phones is the sheer volume. There are estimated to be around three (3) billion mobile phones used worldwide, as opposed to about 800 million desktops. Apple and Google review the uploaded applications before publishing them to the public, but there is no guarantee that they will catch all of the malware.

With relatively low bandwidth, it’s hard to imagine mobile botnets launching massive DDoS (distributed denial of service) attacks. At least not the bandwidth flooding attacks, but logical and protocol attacks are certainly possible since there are so many more mobile phones available than desktops. For example, SYN flooding is quite possible with mobile phones, since it works by sending many requests to a sever and depleting its “half-open” session table, which is able to handle only about 1024 entries. More than DDoS attacks, there is more possibility of fraud and privacy invasion. Malware on the mobile phone can access paid contents and charge to user’s mobile phone account. Since mobile phone stores phone numbers of owner’s contacts, SMS spamming or even personal data leaking is possible. In places like US and others where there is tighter integration between mobile phones and company’s internal resources, the possible damage of data leak is even greater. Also, since user’s location can be pin-pointed using GPS data, a cybercriminal can track certain users for stalking or other criminal purpose. I know certain some companies in Korea already do this, so it shouldn’t be completely inconceivable. There is already an application like FlexiSPY that is used to spy on user activity. After FlexiSPY is installed on a smartphone, it allows you to use the phone to read SMS, e-mail, and call logs from the smart phone from anywhere in the world. The Windows Mobile and Symbian versions even allow you to listen to actual phone calls being made with the smartphone and use the phone as a secret GPS tracker.

There is also no doubt that some cybercriminals will use these powerful smartphones as a tool to a cybercrime.

Seize the opportunity

So far, any serious, widespread malware has been unheard of. It’s because until just about a year ago before iPhone and Google’s Android phones, most phones operated in closed, walled-garden environment. But, as amazing success of iPhone shows, there is huge paradigm shift happening in the mobile phone market right now. I have mentioned several ways cybercriminals can benefit from compromised mobile phones, but if I can think of them, cybercriminals may already have thought of many more creative ways. It’s only a matter of time. There is a great opportunity for a security company to dominate mobile security market. There are already many anti-virus and SMS anti-spam programs are available for all popular mobile operating systems from companies like AirScanner, F-Secure Corp., McAfee Inc., Symantec Corp., SMobile Systems, Trend Micro Inc., and Sophos plc., but none of them is a clear leader yet. Many IT departments in US already have or are in the process of creating mobile security policy. Just as in desktops, they will require installation of security software (anti-virus, firewall, and/or encryption) on smartphnes and can restrict which software can be installed. So far, no major mobile security threats have been widely reported, so they are not on consumers’ radar yet. But, it will just take one outbreak for them to come to the realization. In addition to security software on smartphones, carriers or other 3rd-party vendor could also provide network-based, cloud security services by scanning all mobile data on network level.

For consumers and non-business users, they need to employ the same cautious behavior as in desktop environment. They should always be careful when downloading an application or clicking on a link. Just as in desktop, even with whatever mobile security software they have on the phone, they will not be able to catch everything. They should also create password to access the phones so that their information is relatively safe when stolen. But as in desktop, most users may choose convenience over security, which would be a great tragedy since they may become the source of a large outbreak.

In conclusion, it should come as no surprise that technology advance always comes with double-edged blade. While open smartphones promise another whole new level of productivity gain (or loss to some), they come with a quite strong warning label. But those who seize opportunity will reap great benefits.

Now is the best time to start a company

It may sound strange, but many people have expressed the same opinion.

NOW is the best time to start a company.

I was reading an article from the latest Wired magazine, "Back to the Garage: How Economic Turmoil Breeds Innovation" which gives an example of Tom Siebel who started Siebel Systems in 1993 when economy was faltering then. He was able to hire good software engineers relatively easily and cheaply. He also got an office space quite cheaply as well. It also reminded me of a conversation I had with my friend who is a VC partner (I consider him a friend, but I am not sure if he does). He said this is best time for VC to invest in a company as well. VCs do have money from funds they had raised before the meltdown. Because of downturn, valuation of a company would be lower.

I had the same opinion during the first Internet bubble burst. Historically those companies that survive the economic downturn usually come out as the winner. During the bubble, it was very difficult to find good engineers and sometime companies hired people who could barely type. But when the bubble bursted and companies either closed or laid off many people, the pool of available engineers grew. VCs certainly still had money then. I was quite certain even then that economic downturn would be the best time to start a company.

Due to my unemployment, I frequently visit FuckedStartups.com a lot. There are certainly many layoffs going on. This was all prompted by Sequia Capital's warning to their portfolio companies a few months ago. Where would all the laid off engineers go? I've been searching for a while, but no one is really hiring. Even those who are hiring are taking their sweet time interviewing many folks. However, Americans are quite ingenious. In these tough times, someone with a good idea will hook up with others in similar situation and start a company together.

It also reminds me of the notion of "Creative Destruction". History of Silicon Valley is filled with successful companies born during the bust time following boom time.

Me? I have more pressing need to support my family, so I am going for a full-time employment. I can't start a company when my family relies on me for financial needs. But, when my wife starts working, that would be a different story. Look out, world!